I have never really understood probability, since most of the time it defies common sense. There is a large gap between the statistical probability of an event versus the actual result.
Take, for example, the most basic probability test – flipping a coin. There is a 50/50 chance of it landing on either heads or tails. If you flip a coin once, the result will either be heads or tails, not both, not neither. Even though there are two possible outcomes, there is only 1 result.
Generally people like to average probabilities, attempting to get one single total result from the possible outcomes. If I had a hat full of dollar bills of varying value, and decided to pick one randomly and give it to you, the probabilities could be as follows: There is a 20% chance of picking a $10 bill, a 20% chance of picking a $5, and a 60% chance of picking a $1. If you were to perform some calculations, you could say on average you would receive about $3.60. There is no $3.60 bill, however, and this outcome is impossible.
This concept also applies to many things in real life such as weather. If there is a 30% chance of rain, will it rain 30% of the time and not rain for the remaining 70%? It could, although that is not the only result. It could rain for half of the day, or it might not rain at all.
This averaging a possibilities is what common sense tells us, and is what most people tend to think. However, I’ll bet you that if you flip a coin it won’t land on its side.
Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs 